Website of International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP), NIAS, Bangalore

The International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP), National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore has a new website. The website contains all our reports and books as well as other details about the ISSSP.

The website can be accessed at <http://isssp.in/>

Home page of ISSSP's website <http://isssp.in/>

About the Programme

The International Strategic & Security Studies Programme, was started at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore in 1996 with the broad objective of conducting academic and policy research related to national and international security issues. The emphasis of research is towards integrating complex elements of science and technology with policy, organizational and institutional arrangements.

Rapidly changing geo-political and technology adaptation scenarios affect the national and international strategic conditions and the research carried out in the Programme reflects this. Current and emerging scenarios relating to nuclear, missiles and space weapons are reflective of such an impact and have formed the core area of research.

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Reviews of the book Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics

Dr. Suba Chandran (Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi) and Dr. Manpreet Sethi (ICSSR Senior Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) have written reviews of my book, Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics co-edited with Rajaram Nagappa.

Dr. Suba Chandran writes: (to read the complete review click here)

Though there has been a plethora of books and commentaries on Pakistan, despite its strategic importance to India, Iran has never received the attention it deserves in New Delhi and the rest of country. In this background, the recently published book titled Troubling Teheran: Reflections on Geo Politics, edited by Prof Rajaram Nagappa and Dr Arun Vishwanathan from the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore, is a welcome addition. Some of the essays in this book should create a larger debate in understanding contemporary Iran, from an Indian perspective.

Dr. Manpreet Sethi writes: (to read the complete review click here)

Despite the criticality of this issue for India’s foreign policy, it is surprising that no serious analytical work was attempted on the subject. It is in this context that the book under review comes not a minute too soon. It makes a useful contribution by squarely placing the issue of ‘Troubling Tehran’ in India’s foreign policy matrix. Written by a set of Indian scholars from diverse backgrounds and one Iranian journalist, it brings together individual perspectives that contribute to the richness of the discussion in the book.

Edited by two Professors of the National Institute of Advanced Studies, the writings naturally focus on technical assessments of the Iranian nuclear, missile, and armed forces’ capabilities. They corroborate a widely held view that Iran’s scientific base is not lacking in capability for making nuclear weapons. Interestingly, the chapter on the technical appraisal of Iran’s nuclear activities also dwells on the domestic availability of uranium, an issue that most Western analyses have ignored while providing guesstimates on how quickly and how much fissile material Iran would accumulate for weapons.

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IPCS Special Commentary: Carnegie 2013 Nuclear Policy Conference

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi has published my article on the important debates at the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, Washington DC, April 8-9, 2013 as a Special Commentary

Copyright: Carnegie Endowment Website

In the midst of the ‘proliferation’ of cherry blossoms in Washington DC, the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference was held at the Ronald Reagan Building on April 8 and 9, 2013. The fifteenth annual international nuclear conference organised by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) witnessed attendance by over 800 government officials, experts and students from 46 countries.  

The following paragraphs are an attempt to flag the important issues (in no particular order) which were discussed at the Conference. In a welcome change, the conference, rather than focussing solely on much discussed issues like Iran and North Korea, chose to centre the sessions on four main themes: deterrence, non-proliferation, disarmament and nuclear power/industry.  This being said, Iran, North Korea and - to a lesser degree - South Asia did figure prominently in the sessions, primarily regarding the efficacy of sanctions, the implications of regime-change on non-proliferation and the discussions on the FMCT.  

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Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics

The picture alongside is the cover image of my book Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics which I have co-edited with Prof. Rajaram Nagappa.

The book is being published by Pentagon Press. It will be out on the stands in the next few weeks.

What is the best approach for resolving differences over the Iranian nuclear programme and preventing a conflict? How would a conflict possibly unravel given Iranian military, asymmetric and missile capabilities? What does a military conflict over Iran mean for international order and India in particular? These are some of the questions that the book, Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics analyses and seeks answers to. 

The Iranian nuclear programme is a complex subject plagued by fundamental differences on how best to resolve it. While some advocate diplomacy and economic sanctions as a way forward, others push for a military response arguing that pursuing diplomacy provides Iran additional time to achieve a break-out capability. However, military coercion may not yield desired results, given the dispersed nature of Iranian nuclear facilities. A strike in fact is likely to accelerate Iranian nuclear weaponisation programme. The recent sanctioning of Iran’s oil sector adds to the regime’s cup of woes which is already overflowing due to a host of economic problems. However, the jury is still out on the question of whether sanctions would spark public disaffection against the regime. 

The implications of a military conflict involving Iran are serious for Asia, particularly India. About 85 percent of Iranian oil exports are eastward bound. Dependence on crude and natural gas imports from the Middle East and North Africa region including Iran poses a dilemma for Indian policy makers. New Delhi thus needs to strike a fine balance while basing its policy on realpolitik and national interest.  

Table of Contents

Introduction
Arun Vishwanathan and Rajaram Nagappa

Iran: A War has Begun
Vijay Shankar

Iran's Nuclear Programme: Where is it headed?
Arun Vishwanathan

Iran’s Nuclear Activities: A Technical Appraisal of Declared Intentions and Reality
L V Krishnan

Iran’s Missile Capabilities 
Rajaram Nagappa and S. Chandrashekar

Iran’s Military Capability, Asymmetric Warfare and its Efficacy
P J Jacob

Iran: An Insider’s Account 
Masoud Imani Kalesar 

World Dependence on Iranian Oil: Sanctions on Iran and Impact on India 
V Raghuraman 

Iran: The Road Ahead 
K C Singh

Conclusion and Recommendations 
Arun Vishwanathan and Rajaram Nagappa

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Storming the world stage: the story of Lashkar-e-Taiba

My review of Stephen Tankel's book Storming the World Stage: The Story of Lashkar-e-Taiba has been published by Contemporary South Asia, Vol. 21, No. 3, 2013, pp. 83-84.

Stephen Tankel's book, Storming the world stage, is a tour de force on the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT or Lashkar). LeT is one of most capable militant groups that has carried out acts of terrorism in India over the past two decades. This comprehensive study provides plenty of details on the origins, organisation, and operations of the LeT. Tankel shows that the LeT is the leading group among the various militant organisations supported by Pakistan that act as proxies in the ongoing confrontation with India. 

Storming the world stage begins with a comprehensive overview of the range of militant organisations active in Pakistan. It then goes on to delve into the origins of the Lashkar noting its origins and continuing ties with the religious, missionary organisation now known as Jamaat-ul Dawa (JuD). Tankel traces the various identities the group has assumed over the years as well as showing how LeT has been supported by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The latter part of the book charts the growth and expansion of LeT's capabilities such that it was able to mount terror operations like the Mumbai attacks of November 2008, of course, with ISI's support. Pakistan's reaction, or rather the lack of any action, following the US announcement of a US$10 million reward for information leading to the arrest of LeT chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed in April 2012 highlights Lashkar's favoured status.

For the rest of the review visit http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/EFDRAZ87fQKThJi5IuZc/full

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Interweaving Narratives

Review of  Alice Lyman Miller and Richard Wich, Becoming Asia: Change and Continuity in Asian International Relations since World War II, Foundation Books, New Delhi, 2012, pp. xiv+314, Rs. 995.00 published in The Book Review, Vol XXXVII, No. 2-3, SAARC Special Issue, February-March 2013, 62-63.

Alice Lyman Miller and Richard Wich both of whom have been lecturing for several years on Asian international relations at various American universities have done yeoman's service to the field of international relations by publishing this masterly account of Asia since the Second World War. Miller and Wich have in a comprehensive manner captured the growth of the region from a geographical expression at the end of the World War II to a region which is seen as a global power center in its own right.

As pointed out by the authors, (pp. 2- 7) there are two simultaneous and interweaving narratives through the course of the book. The first is the Cold War competition between the United States and the Soviet Union to enlist the support of the region's countries into their respective blocs. The second narrative is the rising nationalism resulting in the establishment of independent nationstates in the region. In the book, the Cold War and the resultant great power politics as well as rising nationalism are important actors determining the course of events.

The book begins with the wartime conferences which laid down the contours for a post Second World War world. It then moves on to the Chinese Civil War beginning with the differing readings of the event and the consequences of the victory of the Chinese Communist Party. This is followed up by the US occupation of Japan, process of reconstruction which is ably assisted by the `Gift of the Gods' in the form of the Korean and the Indo-China wars. The decolonization process fuelled by nationalism; the US Alliance system and the Sino-Soviet alliance form the bulwark of the next three chapters. The Vietnam War and the strategic realignment heralded by the Sino-American rapprochement is the highlight of the next two chapters. This is followed up with a chapter solely devoted to a phenomenon which has a huge  role in propelling the region to the global stage, namely the `Rise of China'. The final and the penultimate chapters of the book look at the future of the region in the background of the Taiwan issue, the continued simmering tensions in the Korean peninsula, the Japanese rise coupled with domestic demands to revisit Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution and the tensions in South Asia between India and Pakistan. The authors ponder on how all these issues will impinge on the 'Asian Century'.

One of the greatest strengths of the book is that-given the command of the authors over the subject-it manages to condense differing, divergent readings of an issue very concisely and authoritatively into a few pages. The chapter on the `Chinese Civil War' is a case in point. The authors after providing the reader with an overview of the two differing accounts of the Chinese civil war and its course, conclude (p. 35) that the 'most effective approach to explaining the Chinese civil war is to combine both external and domestic factors, taking due account of the goals and actions of all four actors (United States, Soviet union, Chiang Kai-Shek's KMT and the Chinese Communist Party), not just those of the two domestic antagonists or those of the two external powers.' 

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