Hatf-IX/ NASR - Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapon: Implications for Indo-Pak deterrence

Rajaram Nagappa, Arun Vishwanathan, Aditi Malhotra, Hatf-IX/ NASR - Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapon: Implications for Indo-Pak deterrence, NIAS Report R17-13, Bangalore: National Institute of Advanced Studies, July 2013, ISBN: 978-81-87663-79-9.

The full text of the report is available here

On April 19, 2011 Pakistan conducted the first test flight of Hatf-IX (NASR) missile. The Pakistani Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) described the missile as a ‘Short Range Surface to Surface Ballistic Missile’. Till date there have been three tests of the missile system on April 19, 2011, May 29, 2012 and February 11, 2013. After each of the flight tests, the ISPR put out a largely identical press statement which stressed on the point that the “missile has been developed to add deterrence value to Pakistan’s Strategic Weapons Development programme at shorter ranges.” Further the press release went on to state that the 60km NASR “carries a nuclear warhead of appropriate yield with high accuracy, shoot and scoot attributes.”

Following the Pakistani tests and claims of NASR being a nuclear capable missile, there has been a lot of analysis pointing to the dangers it poses for Indo-Pak deterrence. However, despite the large amount of literature which has come out following the NASR test in April 2011, not much attention has been directed at carrying out a holistic assessment of the tactical nuclear weapons issue. It is this crucial gap that that this report seeks to address.

The NASR poses important challenges for nuclear stability between India and Pakistan. However, in order to understand the drivers and Pakistan’s thinking behind NASR, it is crucial to get a handle on the countries’ thinking about nuclear deterrence.

The NASR warhead section has been estimated to have a cylindrical section which is 361 mm in diameter and 940 mm long with a conical portion which is 660 mm long. Thus, the important question is whether (a) Pakistan has a miniaturized weapon warhead which will fit into this dimension, (b) whether it has been tested and (c) in the absence of tests, how reliable is the weapon system. Most importantly, in the absence of demonstrated reliability, how confident will Pakistan be in fielding it?

Will Pakistan consider its tested HEU weapons in stock as adequate for its security or will it consider it necessary to diversify its stockpile? Another important question to consider is whether Pakistan will divert all or part of its uranium reserves for production of an untested Plutonium based weapon.

Pakistan’s gambit of using NASR to signal a lowering of its nuclear threshold to counter any conventional military operation by India is likely to pose challenges for robustness of nuclear deterrence between Pakistan and India. An important question to ponder over and one that holds some importance for nuclear stability in the Indian sub-continent is whether NASR is leading Pakistan into a ‘commitment trap.’ It would be wise to guard against a situation where Pakistan would be forced to follow through just because of its past assertions. The study shows that a weapon system like NASR has more disadvantages than advantages from all considerations ranging from damage potential to impact on deterrence stability.

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Aftermath of a Nuclear Attack: A Case Study of Post-strike Operations

My review of Anil Chauhan's book Aftermath of a Nuclear Attack: A Case Study of Post-strike Operations published in India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 69, 2, June 2013, pp. 200-202.

Speaking of the aftermath of a nuclear exchange, Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev is believed to have said, ‘The living will envy the dead.’ This statement captures the debilitating impact of the use of nuclear weapons. Brigadier Anil Chauhan in his book Aftermath of a Nuclear Attack has succeeded in contributing to a better understanding of this complex issue. The author draws upon much of the existing technical and non-technical literature to provide the reader with a holistic picture of immediate and long-term effects of nuclear explosions and the mechanisms in India to respond to such an exigency.

For the rest of the review please visit the India Quarterly link here

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Comments on Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics

Below are some comments made by various individuals on my book Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics (co-edited with Rajaram Nagappa). The book is published by Pentagon Press and can be purchased at Flipkart and Bookadda apart from regular brick and mortar bookstores.

Former NSA and current Governor of West Bengal, Mr. MK Narayanan made the following comment after reading my book (co-edited with Rajaram Nagappa) Troubling Tehran Reflections on Geopolitics

High quality treatises of this kind are indeed very few, and I greatly welcome this opportunity to update myself on a subject of growing contemporary relevance and significance.

Ms Vijay Thakur, Joint Secretary, National Security Council Secretariat

The book contains articles which are very informative and analytical, and these would provide valuable input to our work at the NSCS.

Vice Admiral RN Ganesh (Retd), former C-in-C, Southern Naval Command

The book is a valuable compilation and makes a useful addition to the existing debate, and I have little doubt that perspectives such as the ones presented in this book will influence the moulding of a more autonomous and reality based policy. This is all the more important with the the impending vacuum in Afghanistan. 

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Website of International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP), NIAS, Bangalore

The International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP), National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore has a new website. The website contains all our reports and books as well as other details about the ISSSP.

The website can be accessed at <http://isssp.in/>

Home page of ISSSP's website <http://isssp.in/>

About the Programme

The International Strategic & Security Studies Programme, was started at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore in 1996 with the broad objective of conducting academic and policy research related to national and international security issues. The emphasis of research is towards integrating complex elements of science and technology with policy, organizational and institutional arrangements.

Rapidly changing geo-political and technology adaptation scenarios affect the national and international strategic conditions and the research carried out in the Programme reflects this. Current and emerging scenarios relating to nuclear, missiles and space weapons are reflective of such an impact and have formed the core area of research.

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Reviews of the book Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics

Dr. Suba Chandran (Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi) and Dr. Manpreet Sethi (ICSSR Senior Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) have written reviews of my book, Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics co-edited with Rajaram Nagappa.

Dr. Suba Chandran writes: (to read the complete review click here)

Though there has been a plethora of books and commentaries on Pakistan, despite its strategic importance to India, Iran has never received the attention it deserves in New Delhi and the rest of country. In this background, the recently published book titled Troubling Teheran: Reflections on Geo Politics, edited by Prof Rajaram Nagappa and Dr Arun Vishwanathan from the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore, is a welcome addition. Some of the essays in this book should create a larger debate in understanding contemporary Iran, from an Indian perspective.

Dr. Manpreet Sethi writes: (to read the complete review click here)

Despite the criticality of this issue for India’s foreign policy, it is surprising that no serious analytical work was attempted on the subject. It is in this context that the book under review comes not a minute too soon. It makes a useful contribution by squarely placing the issue of ‘Troubling Tehran’ in India’s foreign policy matrix. Written by a set of Indian scholars from diverse backgrounds and one Iranian journalist, it brings together individual perspectives that contribute to the richness of the discussion in the book.

Edited by two Professors of the National Institute of Advanced Studies, the writings naturally focus on technical assessments of the Iranian nuclear, missile, and armed forces’ capabilities. They corroborate a widely held view that Iran’s scientific base is not lacking in capability for making nuclear weapons. Interestingly, the chapter on the technical appraisal of Iran’s nuclear activities also dwells on the domestic availability of uranium, an issue that most Western analyses have ignored while providing guesstimates on how quickly and how much fissile material Iran would accumulate for weapons.

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IPCS Special Commentary: Carnegie 2013 Nuclear Policy Conference

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi has published my article on the important debates at the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, Washington DC, April 8-9, 2013 as a Special Commentary

Copyright: Carnegie Endowment Website

In the midst of the ‘proliferation’ of cherry blossoms in Washington DC, the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference was held at the Ronald Reagan Building on April 8 and 9, 2013. The fifteenth annual international nuclear conference organised by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) witnessed attendance by over 800 government officials, experts and students from 46 countries.  

The following paragraphs are an attempt to flag the important issues (in no particular order) which were discussed at the Conference. In a welcome change, the conference, rather than focussing solely on much discussed issues like Iran and North Korea, chose to centre the sessions on four main themes: deterrence, non-proliferation, disarmament and nuclear power/industry.  This being said, Iran, North Korea and - to a lesser degree - South Asia did figure prominently in the sessions, primarily regarding the efficacy of sanctions, the implications of regime-change on non-proliferation and the discussions on the FMCT.  

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