Nov 27, 2007

The Week's Nuclear Round-Up: 19-25 November 07

India
  • Menon holds talks with Mulford; Kakodkar meets ElBaradei; China indicates its support for India at NSG
With the Left parties acquiescing to talks on the India-specific safeguards with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the government has quickly got its act together. Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon held a meeting with the US Ambassador, David Mulford on 19 November to discuss the next steps and the timeline for the implementation of the nuclear agreement. It is expected that India would not take more than a few weeks to negotiate the safeguards agreement with the IAEA. The three important points of negotiations would be the issue of fuel supply assurances, the corrective measures that India can take in case of disruption of fuel supplies and India’s right to build a fuel reserve.


India informed the IAEA, through the Indian envoy Ambassador Sheel Kant Sharma about the DAE chief Anil Kakodkar’s visit to Vienna during the week to make a ‘formal approach’ for an India-specific safeguards agreement.[1] The team, comprising of Dr. Kakodkar, Dr. R.B. Grover, Director, Strategic Planning, DAE and officials from the MEA met the Director-General, IAEA Mohammed ElBaradei for the start of the negotiations on 21 November.[2] In other developments, China indicated that it would support India at the NSG. Premier Wen Jiabao gave the assurance to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the East Asian Summit in Singapore.[3]

NORTH KOREA
  • Disablement process gathering steam; Next round of Six-Party Talks on 6-8 December 2007


The recently initiated process of North Korean nuclear disablement has picked up steam. Another US-led team of inspectors would visit North Korea on 26 November. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman described the mission of the team as an attempt “to gain an on-the-ground understanding of the progress of disablement work of the nuclear facilities.”[4] An unnamed US State Department official noted that it could take North Korea about a year to rebuild its Yongbyon nuclear complex once it has been disabled under the six-nation disarmament accord.[5] Several experts have pointed that the disablement process should ensure that the North Korean regime is not able to re-start its nuclear facilities easily post-disablement.

In other developments, it has been reported that the next round of Six-Party Talks might be held on 6-8 December 2007 in Beijing. These talks would assess the progress of the disablement process and discuss follow-up measures.[6] Christopher Hill, the top US negotiator at the Six-Party Talks was also expected to visit South Korea, Japan and China ahead of the talks in December. North Korea was expected to lay out elements of a draft declaration in which it would detail all of its nuclear programmes.[7] Reports have also pointed out that Pyongyang might not state the exact whereabouts of its nuclear weapons but was expected to disclose information about its weaponized plutonium stock.[8]

IRAN
  • Ahmadinejad: Iran to discuss possibility of uranium enrichment in neutral venues; Solana: Calls for deepening “the idea of international enrichment centres under multilateral supervision”; EU-3 criticise “partial and reactive nature” of Iran’s cooperation


Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has indicated that Iran would discuss with Arab nations a plan to enrich uranium outside the region in a neutral country like Switzerland.[9] Six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council had recently proposed setting up a consortium to provide enriched nuclear fuel to power civil nuclear plants in Iran and other states. The move to enrich uranium outside Iran if successful would go a long way towards allaying fears of an Iranian nuclear weapon. Mr. Ahmadinejad's comments came after moves by Swiss President Micheline Calmy-Rey to facilitate talks between Iran and the US. Ms. Calmy-Rey stated that Switzerland recognised Iran's right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.[10]

Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief on his part called for deepening “the idea of international enrichment centres under multilateral supervision” as a measure to help diffuse the standoff between Iran and the Security Council.[11]

In other developments, former US Secretary of State Colin Powell admitted that Iran was a long way from acquiring a nuclear weapon and that the prospects of a US-Iran military conflict were not too bright. Gen. Powell noted that the US had enough on its hands in Iraq and Afghanistan to get involved in another military conflict.[12]

The US, Britain, France and Germany told governors of the IAEA that Iran had not done enough to win the trust of the international community and that a “wait and watch approach” would not work. The EU-3 expressed “disappointed” over the “partial and reactive nature” of Iran’s cooperation.[13] It is however expected that Russia and China would block any move both at the IAEA as well as the UN Security Council to impose a third round of sanctions against Iran.


[1] Pranab Dhal Samanta, “Indian envoy speaks to IAEA chief, Kakodkar in Vienna tomorrow,” The Indian Express, 20 November 2007, at http://www.indianexpress.com/printerFriendly/241168.html
[2] “Safeguards pact complex: Kakodkar,” The Hindu, 23 November 2007, at http://www.hindu.com/2007/11/23/stories/2007112362261600.htm
[3] M.R. Narayan Swamy, “China to support India at NSG,” Hindustan Times, 21 November 2007, at http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/FullcoverageStoryPage.aspx?id=a615c55b-f8cf-4309-9585-
a5c74f657f53Nucleardealimbroglio_Special&&Headline=China+to+support+India+at+Nuclear+Suppliers
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[4]China says joint team to visit North Korea nuclear site,” Reuters, 26 November 2007, at http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKPEK30730220071126
[5] “Restoring disabled N.Korea nukes would need year: U.S.,” The Washington Post, 22 November 2007, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/22/AR2007112200791_pf.html
[6] “Korean nuke talks likely to be held next month,” Khaleej Times, 23 November 2007, at http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2007/November/theworld_November666.xml&section=theworld&col=
[7]US official going to Asia for North Korea nuclear talks,” International Herald Tribune, 26 November 2007, at http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8484854
[8]N. Korea could declare weaponized plutonium,” Brietbart, 25 November 2007, at http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8T523CG0&show_article=1
[9] Iran eyes nuclear options abroad,” BBC News, 18 November 2007, at http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/7100793.stm
[10] “Swiss president seeking direct negotiations to resolve standoff over Iran's nuclear program,” International Herald Tribune, 18 November 2007, at http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8375294
[11] “Joint nuclear sites useful idea for Iran – Solana,” Reuters, 22 November 2007, at http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-30643820071122
[12] “Powell: Iran is a long way from having nuclear weapon,” International Herald Tribune, 18 November 2007, at http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8382610
[13] Mark Heinrich and Karin Strohecker, “U.S. and EU allies to urge more Iran sanctions,” The Washington Post, 22 November 2007, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2007/11/22/AR2007112200436_pf.html
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