IAEA Safeguards: Evolution and Current Status

My article published in the International Journal of South Asian Studies, Vol. 6(1), Jan-June 2013, pp. 129-146.

For the complete article click here

This essay seeks to trace the evolution and current status of the safeguards system implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It highlights the changes safeguards have undergone since the Agency’s inception in 1957. Safeguards have historically struck a balance between the twin objectives – of facilitating the spread of nuclear technology for peaceful uses and verification of non-proliferation commitments of NPT state parties – that the IAEA was supposed to fulfil. While some changes in the safeguards took place as a response to the spread of civil nuclear technology, other changes have been a reaction to the challenges posed to the non-proliferation regime from the Iraqi and North Korean disclosures. The essay concludes with an assessment of the changes which took place with the coming of Additional Protocol and provides an assessment of the current status of the safeguards across the globe.

For the complete article click here

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Reviews of the book Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics

Dr. Suba Chandran (Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi) and Dr. Manpreet Sethi (ICSSR Senior Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) have written reviews of my book, Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics co-edited with Rajaram Nagappa.

Dr. Suba Chandran writes: (to read the complete review click here)

Though there has been a plethora of books and commentaries on Pakistan, despite its strategic importance to India, Iran has never received the attention it deserves in New Delhi and the rest of country. In this background, the recently published book titled Troubling Teheran: Reflections on Geo Politics, edited by Prof Rajaram Nagappa and Dr Arun Vishwanathan from the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore, is a welcome addition. Some of the essays in this book should create a larger debate in understanding contemporary Iran, from an Indian perspective.

Dr. Manpreet Sethi writes: (to read the complete review click here)

Despite the criticality of this issue for India’s foreign policy, it is surprising that no serious analytical work was attempted on the subject. It is in this context that the book under review comes not a minute too soon. It makes a useful contribution by squarely placing the issue of ‘Troubling Tehran’ in India’s foreign policy matrix. Written by a set of Indian scholars from diverse backgrounds and one Iranian journalist, it brings together individual perspectives that contribute to the richness of the discussion in the book.

Edited by two Professors of the National Institute of Advanced Studies, the writings naturally focus on technical assessments of the Iranian nuclear, missile, and armed forces’ capabilities. They corroborate a widely held view that Iran’s scientific base is not lacking in capability for making nuclear weapons. Interestingly, the chapter on the technical appraisal of Iran’s nuclear activities also dwells on the domestic availability of uranium, an issue that most Western analyses have ignored while providing guesstimates on how quickly and how much fissile material Iran would accumulate for weapons.

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IPCS Special Commentary: Carnegie 2013 Nuclear Policy Conference

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi has published my article on the important debates at the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, Washington DC, April 8-9, 2013 as a Special Commentary

Copyright: Carnegie Endowment Website

In the midst of the ‘proliferation’ of cherry blossoms in Washington DC, the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference was held at the Ronald Reagan Building on April 8 and 9, 2013. The fifteenth annual international nuclear conference organised by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) witnessed attendance by over 800 government officials, experts and students from 46 countries.  

The following paragraphs are an attempt to flag the important issues (in no particular order) which were discussed at the Conference. In a welcome change, the conference, rather than focussing solely on much discussed issues like Iran and North Korea, chose to centre the sessions on four main themes: deterrence, non-proliferation, disarmament and nuclear power/industry.  This being said, Iran, North Korea and - to a lesser degree - South Asia did figure prominently in the sessions, primarily regarding the efficacy of sanctions, the implications of regime-change on non-proliferation and the discussions on the FMCT.  

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Indo-US nuclear deal and the Issue of Uninterrupted Fuel Supplies

Indo-US nuclear deal (from Rusin speaks)

On the issue of continued fuel supply in the event of termination of the agreement, the critics of the nuclear deal are jumping the gun when they say that the US would prevent other Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) countries from continuing with their supply of fuel and other supplies to India if the agreement is terminated under US laws. The issue is an important issue that needs to be discussed. However, the ‘Statements of Policy’ or ‘Sense of Congress’ found in the Hyde Act are not the proper reference points for discussion on the issue.

What Indian decision makers need to be concerned about is the nature of exception to be provided by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) as well as the bilateral civil nuclear agreements that India will sign with other supplier countries like Russia, France, Canada and Australia. Another point which should be taken into account is that currently there is no NSG requirement which stipulates that if one member terminates cooperation other member countries have to follow suit.

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