Troubling Tehran listed in Iran Review Website

My co-ed book (with Rajaram Nagappa) Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics listed on the Iran Review Website.

 

The leading website studying Iranian developments (Iran Review) has listed ISSSP’s book Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics. The book joins a select list of publications that the website has shortlisted based on their focus on Iran. 

What is the best approach for resolving differences over the Iranian nuclear programme and preventing a conflict? How would a conflict possibly unravel given Iranian military, asymmetric and missile capabilities? What does a military conflict over Iran mean for international order and India in particular? These are some of the questions that the book, Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics analyses and seeks answers to.

The book can be bought from Flipkart | Bookadda | Amazon | Amazon India

For more details on the book click here

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Troubling Tehran - Book Review

Review of my co-edited book, Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics in IDSA's Strategic Analysis Vol. 38, No. 4, May 2014, pp. 376-378 by Ms. Aditi Malhotra, Senior Research Fellow, National Institute of Advanced Studies

The ever dynamic nuclear conundrum of Iran has continued to hog the limelight. Numerous suggestions emanating from varied quarters about how to manage the issue have dominated the ongoing international discourse. However, there is no unanimity on how to cope with the current situation and the impending future. 

Surprisingly, in the Indian context, where Iran’s importance is undeniable, the debates have remained limited and incomprehensive. Troubling Tehran is a book that seeks to address this lacuna and trigger an Indian cogitation on Iran and the prognosis.

For the complete book review click here

The book can be bought from Flipkart | Bookadda | Amazon | Amazon India

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Iran and P5+1 Geneva Agreement: A Game Changer?

My article on the Iran P5+1 Joint plan of action and its wider ramifications in The Diplomatist, Vol. 3, Issue 3, March 2014.

The interim agreement signed on November 24, 2013 at Geneva by Iran and the P5+1 and its subsequent operationalisation (January 20, 2014) highlights a remarkable shift the situation surrounding Iran has undergone over the past few months. The agreement is being perceived as a major departure in American policy towards Iran and the region in general. However, close observers would be quick in pointing out that such a shift has been some time in the making. The US move to enter into a dialogue with Tehran has largely been the result of a desire to buy more time to address the concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear programme through verification and roll back any probable progress Iran has made in building a nuclear weapon.

The deal also underscores the US’s endeavour to balance its efforts to push back Tehran’s regional rise on one hand,and build bridges of some kind after a hiatus of over three decades on the other. Taking a bird’s eye-view of the overall geo-political scenario, the move stems from the growing dissonance between US and its allies (Saudi Arabia and Israel) on major issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict, Syrian civil war and chemical weapons issue, as well as the handling of the Arab Spring aftermath.

For the complete article (in PDF) click here

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Reviews of the book Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics

Dr. Suba Chandran (Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi) and Dr. Manpreet Sethi (ICSSR Senior Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) have written reviews of my book, Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics co-edited with Rajaram Nagappa.

Dr. Suba Chandran writes: (to read the complete review click here)

Though there has been a plethora of books and commentaries on Pakistan, despite its strategic importance to India, Iran has never received the attention it deserves in New Delhi and the rest of country. In this background, the recently published book titled Troubling Teheran: Reflections on Geo Politics, edited by Prof Rajaram Nagappa and Dr Arun Vishwanathan from the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore, is a welcome addition. Some of the essays in this book should create a larger debate in understanding contemporary Iran, from an Indian perspective.

Dr. Manpreet Sethi writes: (to read the complete review click here)

Despite the criticality of this issue for India’s foreign policy, it is surprising that no serious analytical work was attempted on the subject. It is in this context that the book under review comes not a minute too soon. It makes a useful contribution by squarely placing the issue of ‘Troubling Tehran’ in India’s foreign policy matrix. Written by a set of Indian scholars from diverse backgrounds and one Iranian journalist, it brings together individual perspectives that contribute to the richness of the discussion in the book.

Edited by two Professors of the National Institute of Advanced Studies, the writings naturally focus on technical assessments of the Iranian nuclear, missile, and armed forces’ capabilities. They corroborate a widely held view that Iran’s scientific base is not lacking in capability for making nuclear weapons. Interestingly, the chapter on the technical appraisal of Iran’s nuclear activities also dwells on the domestic availability of uranium, an issue that most Western analyses have ignored while providing guesstimates on how quickly and how much fissile material Iran would accumulate for weapons.

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IPCS Special Commentary: Carnegie 2013 Nuclear Policy Conference

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi has published my article on the important debates at the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, Washington DC, April 8-9, 2013 as a Special Commentary

Copyright: Carnegie Endowment Website

In the midst of the ‘proliferation’ of cherry blossoms in Washington DC, the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference was held at the Ronald Reagan Building on April 8 and 9, 2013. The fifteenth annual international nuclear conference organised by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) witnessed attendance by over 800 government officials, experts and students from 46 countries.  

The following paragraphs are an attempt to flag the important issues (in no particular order) which were discussed at the Conference. In a welcome change, the conference, rather than focussing solely on much discussed issues like Iran and North Korea, chose to centre the sessions on four main themes: deterrence, non-proliferation, disarmament and nuclear power/industry.  This being said, Iran, North Korea and - to a lesser degree - South Asia did figure prominently in the sessions, primarily regarding the efficacy of sanctions, the implications of regime-change on non-proliferation and the discussions on the FMCT.  

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Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics

The picture alongside is the cover image of my book Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics which I have co-edited with Prof. Rajaram Nagappa.

The book is being published by Pentagon Press. It will be out on the stands in the next few weeks.

What is the best approach for resolving differences over the Iranian nuclear programme and preventing a conflict? How would a conflict possibly unravel given Iranian military, asymmetric and missile capabilities? What does a military conflict over Iran mean for international order and India in particular? These are some of the questions that the book, Troubling Tehran: Reflections on Geopolitics analyses and seeks answers to. 

The Iranian nuclear programme is a complex subject plagued by fundamental differences on how best to resolve it. While some advocate diplomacy and economic sanctions as a way forward, others push for a military response arguing that pursuing diplomacy provides Iran additional time to achieve a break-out capability. However, military coercion may not yield desired results, given the dispersed nature of Iranian nuclear facilities. A strike in fact is likely to accelerate Iranian nuclear weaponisation programme. The recent sanctioning of Iran’s oil sector adds to the regime’s cup of woes which is already overflowing due to a host of economic problems. However, the jury is still out on the question of whether sanctions would spark public disaffection against the regime. 

The implications of a military conflict involving Iran are serious for Asia, particularly India. About 85 percent of Iranian oil exports are eastward bound. Dependence on crude and natural gas imports from the Middle East and North Africa region including Iran poses a dilemma for Indian policy makers. New Delhi thus needs to strike a fine balance while basing its policy on realpolitik and national interest.  

Table of Contents

Introduction
Arun Vishwanathan and Rajaram Nagappa

Iran: A War has Begun
Vijay Shankar

Iran's Nuclear Programme: Where is it headed?
Arun Vishwanathan

Iran’s Nuclear Activities: A Technical Appraisal of Declared Intentions and Reality
L V Krishnan

Iran’s Missile Capabilities 
Rajaram Nagappa and S. Chandrashekar

Iran’s Military Capability, Asymmetric Warfare and its Efficacy
P J Jacob

Iran: An Insider’s Account 
Masoud Imani Kalesar 

World Dependence on Iranian Oil: Sanctions on Iran and Impact on India 
V Raghuraman 

Iran: The Road Ahead 
K C Singh

Conclusion and Recommendations 
Arun Vishwanathan and Rajaram Nagappa

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Iranian Nuclear Program: An Overview

This was a talk I gave at the Round Table "Iran: A War has Begun" organised by the International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus (IISc), Bangalore

The remaining talks, photos, program, bios are available at the following link
http://nias.res.in/research-schools-isss-conf2012-iran.php

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Intelligence report on Iranian nukes: Vindication of India's Stand?

This was published on the South Asia Monitor website

India Iran (Rising Powers website)

The mandarins at South Block have every reason to be pleased with the latest US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the Iranian nuclear programme. In many ways, the NIE has vindicated the Indian stand on the Iranian nuclear issue. The Indian policy on the issue was centred on three pillars. The first was the support of Iran's right to pursue civilian nuclear technology. The second was the realisation that a nuclear-armed Iran would shift the regional threat calculus which would be detrimental to India's interests. The third was the Indian desire to de-hyphenate the Indo-US nuclear agreement from the Iranian issue. The NIE has vindicated the Indian policy on each of these parameters.

India has for long held that Iran must abide by its Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations and also clear up the doubts surrounding its compliance with the NPT. Concrete progress on this front has taken place in light of the recently drawn up International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - Iran 'Road Map,' and is reflected in the recent IAEA Director General's report to the IAEA Board of Governors. Though, Iranian cooperation with the Agency is still less than optimal, the process of engagement has begun, which could help clear differences on thorny issues as well as convince Iran on the need to clarify on many unanswered questions regarding its nuclear programme. More importantly, ElBaradei in his statement has said that the NIE "is consistent with the IAEA's assessment of Iran's nuclear programme."

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The IAEA Resolution: A Cretan Labyrinth?

This article was published in the IPCS website in October 2005

Iran and IAEA (Indology.net)

Labels of Success and Failure are fickle in diplomacy. The Manmohan Singh government has understood this rule of international relations, following its condemnation from all quarters on the stand it took on the Iranian vote in the IAEA Board of Governors. The foreign policy success of the Manmohan Singh Government; namely the nuclear deal that it clinched with the US, is fast becoming a millstone around its neck.

There has been much talk about the significance of the Indian vote and the impact it will have, in terms of nuclear fuel that India will receive from the United States despite possible loss of Iranian fossil resources. However, there has not been much discussion of the resolution which India supported. This resolution passed by the IAEA Board of Governors on 24 September 2005 is a very cleverly worded document. It finds Iran in 'non compliance' with its safeguards obligations under the NPT and expresses an "absence of confidence that Iran's nuclear programme is entirely for peaceful purposes."

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