Intelligence report on Iranian nukes: Vindication of India's Stand?

This was published on the South Asia Monitor website

India Iran (Rising Powers website)

The mandarins at South Block have every reason to be pleased with the latest US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the Iranian nuclear programme. In many ways, the NIE has vindicated the Indian stand on the Iranian nuclear issue. The Indian policy on the issue was centred on three pillars. The first was the support of Iran's right to pursue civilian nuclear technology. The second was the realisation that a nuclear-armed Iran would shift the regional threat calculus which would be detrimental to India's interests. The third was the Indian desire to de-hyphenate the Indo-US nuclear agreement from the Iranian issue. The NIE has vindicated the Indian policy on each of these parameters.

India has for long held that Iran must abide by its Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations and also clear up the doubts surrounding its compliance with the NPT. Concrete progress on this front has taken place in light of the recently drawn up International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - Iran 'Road Map,' and is reflected in the recent IAEA Director General's report to the IAEA Board of Governors. Though, Iranian cooperation with the Agency is still less than optimal, the process of engagement has begun, which could help clear differences on thorny issues as well as convince Iran on the need to clarify on many unanswered questions regarding its nuclear programme. More importantly, ElBaradei in his statement has said that the NIE "is consistent with the IAEA's assessment of Iran's nuclear programme."

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The Week’s Nuclear Round-Up: 26 November – 2 December 07

Published in the IDSA's Strategic Digest as part of The Week in Review Section
 
INDIA

• Moscow assures New Delhi of lifetime fuel supply for the two 1000 MW reactors at Koodankulam; Opposition questions government decision not to sign intergovernmental agreement with Russia; Parliament discusses nuclear deal

Moscow has assured New Delhi of lifetime supply for the two 1,000 MW nuclear reactors, being built with Russian assistance at Koodankulam. This was disclosed by Prithviraj Chavan, the Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office in the Rajya Sabha on 29 November.[i] However, the guarantee did not cover the fuel supply for the other four proposed reactors of 700MW each, the supply of fuel for which would depend on India getting the green signal both from the NSG as well as the IAEA.

The government’s failure to sign an intergovernmental agreement with Russia during the recent visit of Prime Minister Singh was raised in Parliament during the debate on the nuclear deal. A report in The Hindu on 13 November had noted that the government had backed out from signing the agreement.[ii] Dr. Singh on his part clarified that due to the delay in finalising the India-specific safeguards agreement with the IAEA, it was felt that it will be premature to sign an agreement which cannot be operationalised.[iii] Some analysts however raised suspicions that the government had backed out of the Russian deal due to an apprehension about American displeasure.[iv]

In other developments, the much-awaited Parliamentary debate on the nuclear deal took place on the 28 November. Leader of Opposition L.K. Advani criticised the deal as being “unacceptable to the nation because it is deeply detrimental to India’s vital and long-term interests.” He also declared that if the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance came to power, it would renegotiate the nuclear deal. Prime Minister Singh again reiterated that there was nothing in the agreement which prevented India from carrying out further tests.[v] EAM Pranab Mukherjee noted that the India-specific safeguards agreement with the IAEA was aimed at ensuring the country’s right to create strategic reserves to meet any interruption in fuel supply, besides securing recognition for India’s strategic programme by accepting the separation plan.[vi]

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The Week's Nuclear Round-Up: 19-25 November 07

India

• Menon holds talks with Mulford; Kakodkar meets ElBaradei; China indicates its support for India at NSG

With the Left parties acquiescing to talks on the India-specific safeguards with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the government has quickly got its act together. Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon held a meeting with the US Ambassador, David Mulford on 19 November to discuss the next steps and the timeline for the implementation of the nuclear agreement. It is expected that India would not take more than a few weeks to negotiate the safeguards agreement with the IAEA. The three important points of negotiations would be the issue of fuel supply assurances, the corrective measures that India can take in case of disruption of fuel supplies and India’s right to build a fuel reserve.

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The Week's Nuclear Round-Up 12-18 November '07

India

• Indo-Russian Koodankulam agreement fails to materialise; Left allows government to talk to IAEA; PM, Sonia bat for nuclear deal at AICC meeting

The much expected Indo-Russian agreement for the construction of four additional reactors at the Koodankulam site failed to materialize during Prime Minster Manmohan Singh’s recent visit to Moscow. No reasons were assigned for the agreement not being signed.23 Some reports suggested that the decision could be due to the domestic problems that the government was facing with operationalising the nuclear deal.[1]

In other developments, Dr. Singh reiterated during a meeting of the All India Congress Committee that Indo-US nuclear agreement concerned only the civil side of the nuclear programme and would have no bearing on India’s strategic programme. Congress President Sonia Gandhi also affirmed that the deal would facilitate India’s access to fuel and new technologies to fulfil its requirements in the energy sector.[2]

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The Week's Nuclear Round-Up 5-11 November '07

India

• Indian expert to be sent to Switzerland to explain Indo-US nuclear deal; India-Russia to sign agreements for 4 more reactors during Dr. Singh’s visit

Switzerland President Micheline Calmy-Rey told reporters at the end of her New Delhi visit during the week that she had requested Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to send an Indian expert to Switzerland in order to explain the Indo-US nuclear deal.[1]

It was also reported that India and Russia would sign an agreement for building four more nuclear reactors at Koodankulam during Dr. Singh’s upcoming visit to Moscow. Reports quoted an unnamed Russian official as stating that the ongoing civil nuclear energy cooperation between the two countries was independent of the fate of the Indo-US nuclear deal.[2] Russia has also been willing to build fast neutron reactors for Indian power plants after international sanctions are lifted against New Delhi in civil nuclear cooperation.

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It's about the Fuel, Stupid!

Published in the IPCS website in November 2007.

PM Singh (IBN Live)

There was a sense among supporters of the nuclear deal that if India missed the bus on the Indo-US nuclear agreement, it would come back to haunt us sooner rather than later. What one did not know was that, this would happen so soon. The recent news about the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NCPIL) deciding to shut down 5 units due to lack of fuel though unfortunate is not unexpected. The incident is the result of a mismatch between demand and supply of uranium from operational mines that has hit Indian domestic nuclear power programme quite hard in the last couple of years. Indian companies like the NCPIL have reached a stage in their learning curves where they are able to construct and commission nuclear power plants in relatively shorter time-frames. However, on the supply side, there is just not enough fuel coming out of the domestic uranium mines to power these reactors.

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