Sino-Pak Nuclear and Missile Collaboration: Implications for India

My article on the Sino-Pak Nuclear and Missile Collaboration published in the Defence and Security Alert, Vol 5, Issue 1, October 2013, pp. 32-34.


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Cost-benefit analysis is an intrinsic part of international relations and integral to understanding behaviour of states and the choices they make. Countries always try to find ways of maximising benefit while minimising their costs. China has put this strategy to good use while providing assistance to Pakistan in the nuclear and missile domain. By providing assistance to the Pakistani nuclear weapons programme, China – at least cost – has attempted to counter the Indian nuclear capabilities. The Chinese assistance can be seen as part of a larger attempt to tie down India to its Western neighbour, thereby thwarting New Delhi’s regional ambitions. In doing so, China and Pakistan seem to have put into practice, Kautilya’s maxim "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."

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Understanding Pakistan

My review of Ian Talbot's book, in The Book Review, Vol. XXXVII, No. 10, October 2013, pp. 51-52.

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As a new civilian government  finds its feet following the historic transition of democratic power in Pakistan, it is important to carry out a holistic analysis of the multiple crises plaguing Pakistan. These range from a troubling internal security situation with rampant terrorist attacks to a crisis of governance to a slowing economy complicated by an energy crisis. In recent years, given the troubles plaguing Pakistan several scholars have outlined a pessimistic future for Pakistan that has ranged from implosion of the country, to its breaking up or ‘Lebanonisation’ to carving of an Islamic Emirate from within Pakistan’s territory. What makes Ian Talbot’s book a great read is the fact that it chronologically and in great detail analyses the historical developments in Pakistan and highlights the turning points—beginning with the failure of the first democratic experiment in 1958—which have led Pakistan down the path it currently finds itself in. The strength and quality of Talbot’s scholarship comes across given the fact that he engages with the spectrum of available scholarship on every issue whether it is the link between madrassa education and militancy or poor governance to uneven economic development. This coupled with Talbot’s assessment of the strength and weaknesses of the reading of the issue by various scholars provides the reader with a well rounded understanding.

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Tel Aviv and Pretoria’s Nuclear Tango

My article published in the journal International Politics, Vol. 4, No. VIII, Summer & Autumn 2011, Tehran, pp. 21-39.

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South Africa's prime minister John Vorster (second from right) is feted by
Israel's prime minister Yitzhak Rabin (right) and Menachem Begin (left) and Moshe Dayan during his 1976 visit to Jerusalem. Photograph: Sa'ar Ya'acov (Credit: Guardian Website)

The coming together of Israel and South Africa in nuclear, missile and military fields; though puzzling can be understood in the entire geo ‐ political situation the countries found themselves in. Both states were international pariahs and felt that they were surrounded by hostile neighbours. This article tracks cooperation between Israel and South Africa from the 1950s when South Africa began supplying uranium to Israel. Thereafter the bonhomie expanded to training of each other’s scientific personnel. Israel and South Africa also collaborated in the missile field with declassified documents released from South African archives pointing to Tel Aviv offering to sell its Jericho ‐ 2 nuclear capable missiles to Pretoria as well as Pretoria allowing Israel to test its longer range missiles from the Overberg test range. In addition, the bilateral cooperation also extended to testing of Israeli nuclear weapons in South Africa as brought to light by the 1977 aborted preparations and the subsequent 1979 nuclear test picked up by the American Vela satellites. 

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India-Pak CBMs and Cricket: Duck, Six or Somewhere in Between?

My article (co-authored with Aryaman Bhatnagar) published in Generation Why: South Asian Voices, Stimson Center, Washington DC, August 30, 2013

http://southasianvoices.org/india-pak-cbms-and-cricket-duck-six-or-somewhere-in-between/

A simple search will throw up several definitions of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs). Given deep suspicions of the ‘other’ and unresolved bilateral disputes, Indo-Pak CBMs are seen as a means to establish channels of communication and increase transparency between the two countries. Currently such mechanisms exist to increase military to military ties, greater people to people contact, provide advance notification of military manoeuvres and missile tests among others. Given cricket’s popularity in both countries, it has been seen as a possible CBM. Seen as a ‘quick fix’ to improve relations, given the sport’s popularity, in reality cricket might not translate into much in terms of better Indo-Pak relations.

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Telegraph India quotes me on the current situation in Syria

Charu Sudan Kasturi of the Telegraph (Calcutta) has quoted me in a story on the Syrian crisis and implications for India in today's paper.

“It is not in our interests to support unilateral operations,” Arun Vishwanathan, a former assistant director at India’s National Security Council said. “But I think the opposition will disappear if UN inspectors find evidence of chemical weapons use by the Syrian regime. That is what will be the game-changer.”

I had written an Issue Brief for the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi on the dangers of Syrian Chemical Weapons in September 2012. 

http://www.observerindia.com/cms/sites/orfonline/modules/issuebrief/attachments/ORF_Issue_brief_45_1347355536755.pdf

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Nuclear Signals in South Asia

My article titled "Nuclear Signals in South Asia" published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, August 9, 2013 available at http://www.thebulletin.org/nuclear-signals-south-asia

India, Pakistan, and China have been dancing a nuclear tango of late, taking steps that have serious implications for the entire region. The countries need to engage if they are to understand the vocabulary and thinking that underpin one another’s nuclear strategies. India will hold elections in 2014. Pakistan has just gone through a democratic transfer of power. China has a new set of leaders in place after its decadal leadership transition. It will be interesting to see whether and how the nuclear signaling game in South Asia changes, once new leadership is in place in all three countries.

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