India Pakistan Relations: Two Questions on the Way Forward – Part II

Second of my two-part article in the  Stimson Center's website, South Asian Voices, June 2, 2014
http://southasianvoices.org/india-pakistan-relations-two-questions-on-the-way-forward-part-ii/

Despite the agreement on the need for the two countries to engage with each other, there is a difficult question that remains unanswered. The more important and possibly more difficult question is “Who does India speak to within Pakistan?” Does it seek to engage the civilian leadership in Islamabad or should it accept the ground reality and engage with the real center of power in Rawalpindi?

The choice is not a simple one. Engaging with the generals would mean reinforcing the commonly held perception and result in the weakening of the elected civilian leadership. In the longer run, the move could prove counterproductive given the impact that it will have on the democratic forces which are consolidating their base following the recent elections.

For the complete article click here

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India Pakistan Relations: Two Questions on the Way Forward – Part I

My two-part article in the Stimson Center's website, South Asian Voices, May 29, 2014

http://southasianvoices.org/india-pakistan-relations-two-question-on-the-way-forward-part-i/

There has been a buzz surrounding India-Pakistan relations in recent weeks. The decision of the Narendra Modi government to invite all heads of governments of all SAARC countries and Mauritius to the swearing-in ceremony was seen by many as a positive step. It was as if the incoming Prime Minister had read the words “All the world’s a stage,” in Shakespeare’s As You Like It and had taken it to heart. Many in India felt that by extending the invitation, India had seized the initiative rather than responding to an existing situation, crisis. 

While I was following these developments, two questions kept coming back to my mind. First, Why should India continue to engage Pakistan and what does it seek to gain from such an engagement. Second, who should India engage with in Pakistan?

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Understanding Pakistan

My review of Ian Talbot's book, in The Book Review, Vol. XXXVII, No. 10, October 2013, pp. 51-52.

To read the complete review click here

As a new civilian government  finds its feet following the historic transition of democratic power in Pakistan, it is important to carry out a holistic analysis of the multiple crises plaguing Pakistan. These range from a troubling internal security situation with rampant terrorist attacks to a crisis of governance to a slowing economy complicated by an energy crisis. In recent years, given the troubles plaguing Pakistan several scholars have outlined a pessimistic future for Pakistan that has ranged from implosion of the country, to its breaking up or ‘Lebanonisation’ to carving of an Islamic Emirate from within Pakistan’s territory. What makes Ian Talbot’s book a great read is the fact that it chronologically and in great detail analyses the historical developments in Pakistan and highlights the turning points—beginning with the failure of the first democratic experiment in 1958—which have led Pakistan down the path it currently finds itself in. The strength and quality of Talbot’s scholarship comes across given the fact that he engages with the spectrum of available scholarship on every issue whether it is the link between madrassa education and militancy or poor governance to uneven economic development. This coupled with Talbot’s assessment of the strength and weaknesses of the reading of the issue by various scholars provides the reader with a well rounded understanding.

To read the complete review click here  

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Confrontation, Dialogue and Radicalization

published in The Book Review, Vol XXXVI, No. 9, South Asia XX-1, September 2012, 18-19
 

Irfan Husain, Fatal Faultlines: Pakistan, Islam and the West

Fatal Faultlines is a lucid account delving into many difficult questions which lie at the heart of interactions between Islam, the West and Pakistan. These range from historical confrontation between Muslim and western civilizations and their impact on the current ‘dialogue’ between Muslim countries and the West. Husain studies the roots of terrorism and increasing radicalization. In less than 250 pages, Irfan Husain—a popular Pakistani journalist—has delved into these and many related issues which make our world an increasingly dangerous place in a simple, well researched and easy to read book.

‘Why us?’ is an interesting, yet telling question, which is posed to the author by his American friends in the aftermath of 9/11 attacks. It is an important question, which the United States as a country should ask itself in order to extricate itself out of the chakravyuha it finds itself in. Despite American humanitarian efforts in many counties from Bosnia to Pakistan, anti-Americanism is on the rise across the globe. The book, in many ways, is an attempt to answer this central question.

One of the most important sources of this hatred is the result of American support—influenced by geopolitics and economics—of authoritarian regimes in many Muslim countries. During the Cold War this meant keeping pro-Soviet Left wing groups away from power even if it meant extending support to despots. These authoritarian regimes in turn used this support to crush domestic opposition, which were more often than not, led by Islamic groups like the Muslim Brotherhood.
Another reason for the widespread disenchantment with the US has been its constant support of Israel Muslims. Why the US despite all its talk of democracy, justice and human rights, can turn a blind eye to the violation of these ideals in Palestine on a daily basis cannot be fathomed. As Husain points out, ‘the fact that the United States is Israel’s biggest patron and strongest ally results in much of this anger being directed towards Washington’ (p. 9).

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What are friends for? The supply of restricted items to Chashma via China

published in the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, as IDSA Comment, November 29, 2011, available at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/ThesupplyofrestricteditemstoChashmaviaChina_avishwanathan_291111

On November 15, 2011, Xun Wang, a former Managing Director of the Shanghai-based PPG Paints Trading Co. Ltd. (fully-owned subsidiary of the American PPG Industries based in Pennsylvania)

Pakistan's stamp depicting the Chasma Nuclear Power Plant

pleaded guilty to the charges levelled against her before the federal judge at the US District Court at Washington DC. Ms. Wang has been charged with conspiring to export and re-export specially designed high-performance epoxy coatings to the Chashma-II Nuclear Power Plant (CNUPP-II) in Pakistan without requisite export licenses.[1] Ms. Wang - a Chinese citizen and a permanent US resident - has been charged with one count of conspiracy and three counts of violating export laws under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the Export Administration Regulation (EAR).

Ms. Wang was arrested on June 16, 2011 at the Atlanta airport and made her first appearance before the US District Court in Washington DC on July 7, 2011. While pleading guilty on November 15, Ms. Wang has reportedly reached a $200,000 settlement with the Department of Commerce and agreed to cooperate with investigators. Ms. Wang’s arrest and guilty plea is intrinsically linked to the December 21, 2010 guilty plea made by PPG Paints Trading, Shanghai, to one count of conspiracy and three counts of acting with knowledge of a violation under various sections of the EAR and the IEEPA. PPG Industries Inc which is based in Pennsylvania and its fully owned Chinese subsidiary PPG Paints Trading which is based in Shanghai, paid a total sum of US $ 3.75 million in criminal and administrative fines and over US $ 32,000 in restitution. The amount of these fines represents one of the largest penalties imposed in the history of the Bureau of Industry and Security, US Department of Commerce for export violations.

Background
The current proceedings against Ms. Wang trace their origins to the January 2006 agreement signed between the PPG Paints Trading and the Chinese government-owned company China Nuclear Engineering Huaxing Construction Co. Ltd. to supply material to the Chinese companies working at the Chashma nuclear power plant in Pakistan. Huaxing Construction had been sub-contracted by the Chinese government owned Zhongyuan Engineering Corporation which is one of the Chinese companies involved in the construction of the Chashma Nuclear Power Plant.

However, a licence from the US Department of Commerce to export the item was necessary. This was due to two reasons. Firstly, epoxy paint and thinner was designated as EAR 99. This meant that it was not on the US Department of Commerce Control List but, was subject to regulations. Secondly, the Chashma reactor - where the item was to be used - is owned and operated by the Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) which is an entity on the Department of Commerce Entity list. Therefore, PPG Industries or any other organisation would require a licence from the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) to export any material destined to be used at Chashma.

Following the inking of the above mentioned agreement, PPG Industries submitted an application to the US Department of Commerce for a license to export the epoxy paint coatings to Chashma in January 2006. Given that the PAEC was on the Entity List, the license was denied by the BIS. Subsequently, PPG Paints Trading, Shanghai and Ms. Xun Wang (who had joined PPG Paints Trading in May 2006) were informed of this development by PPG Industries.

It is interesting to note that prior to the January 2006 agreement with the PPG Industries, the Huaxing Construction had unilaterally applied for an export license to export the epoxy paint to Chashma on five separate occasions previously. Each time its application had been rejected. The rejection of the PPG Industries application thus constituted its sixth attempt at procuring a license – either directly or indirectly – to export the paint to be used at the Chashma nuclear power plant.

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