Mar 30, 2015

Nuclearisation of South Asia: Implications for India’s National Security

Nuclearisation of South Asia: Implications for India’s National Security, Jawaharlal Nehru University, March 27, 2015

ICSSR JNUI presented a paper on te Evolution of Missile Technologies in India along with Prof Rajaram Nagappa at the Center for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. This was part of an authors’ conference for an Indian Council for Social Science Research (ICSSR) project titled “Nuclearisation of South Asia: Implications for India’s National Security” on March 27, 2015. 
Members of the ISSSP, NIAS presented two papers at the conference. LV Krishnan presented his paper on Evolution of Strategic Nuclear Technologies in India. Rajaram Nagappa and Arun Vishwanathan presented their paper on Evolution of Missile Technologies in India. The papers will be published as part of a forthcoming edited book. 
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Oct 19, 2014

Reminisces of the 13th RCSS Summer Workshop


ISSSP Reflections No. 22, October 14, 2014

Author: Dr. Arun Vishwanathan

RCSS Group Photo
The Regional Center for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo launched the Summer Workshop Series in a bid to bring together young Indian, Pakistani and Chinese scholars in 1993. The Workshop was held regularly on an annual basis till 2006 when it was discontinued due to funding issues. Recently, RCSS led by its Executive Director, Dr. Mallika Joseph was successful in garnering funds for organising the 13th Summer Workshop (September 15-25, 2014) at Kalutara, Sri Lanka (~40kms from Colombo). The theme of the Workshop was “Nuclear Disarmament, Safety and Stability.” I was fortunate to be selected to participate in the Workshop which brought together thirty odd young scholars from India, Pakistan, China and the US for an intensive ten-day fully residential workshop.

The workshop is probably the only of its kind as it brings together young scholars from India, Pakistan and China for a decent length of time. The fact that the organisers house participants from different countries in a room on twin-sharing basis and provide opportunities for joint activities and presentations, leads to fostering of friendships and understanding of the others’ point of view. Given the intertwined histories and security challenges the region faces, one cannot but emphasise the importance of such endeavours and lament at the fact that occasions for such interactions – especially for young researchers – are too few and far between.

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Jul 30, 2014

Commentary: Pakistan’s Nasr/Hatf-IX Missile: Challenges for Indo-Pak Deterrence

My article in the Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34(4), July 2014 pp. 444-448 on Pakistan’s Nasr/Hatf-IX Missile: Challenges for Indo-Pak Deterrence

http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/fR7pGKkY8tYPsW6KRZtW/full

strat analysisOn November 5, 2013 Pakistan conducted its fourth test of the Hatf-IX (Nasr) short range battlefield ‘nuclear’ missile. To date there have been four flight tests of the missile system. After the first three tests (April 19, 2011, May 29, 2012 and February 11, 2013) Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) had put out identical press releases. These statements claimed that the missile had a range of 60km and carried ‘nuclear warheads (sic) of appropriate yield’. The ISPR statement following the fourth flight test of Nasr, a salvo firing of four missiles, was worded differently and did not repeat the claim that Nasr carried a nuclear warhead. Curiously, it referred to the missile’s nuclear capability in a roundabout sort of way. The statement claimed that the missile ‘contributes to the full spectrum deterrence against threats in view of evolving scenarios’.

This then begets three questions. Firstly, what is Pakistan trying to signal by way of the Nasr and what is the significance of the change in wording of the ISPR statement following the fourth Nasr test flight? Secondly, can Pakistan actually fit a nuclear warhead into the Nasr? Thirdly, how credible would Nasr be in Indian eyes and how will it impact the Indo-Pak deterrence relationship.
For the complete article click here
To download the entire text (PDF) click here
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Jun 30, 2014

Revamping India’s National Security Structure: An Agenda for the Indian Government

My report on Revamping India’s National Security Structure | An Agenda for the Indian Government, from the International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, NIAS, Bangalore, June 2014.

http://isssp.in/revamping-indias-national-security-structure-agenda-for-the-indian-government/

To read the complete report in pdf click here
Revamping India s National Security Structure-CoverThe 2014 elections for the Sixteenth Lok Sabha saw the Indian electorate delivering a positive, decisive mandate to a single party after a gap of almost three decades. An important area which is in need for urgent attention from the Narendra Modi-government is India’s national security structure. Despite past efforts at reform, India’s national security structure continues to be plagued by absence of coordination, turf battles and paucity of human resources. Many of these problems are symptomatic of systemic ills which therefore require a holistic relook.

In order for India to achieve its national interests it should be able to work in a coordinated fashion. This necessitates a holistic revamping of the existing national security apparatus and its workings. Putting in place a mechanism that develops long-term strategies and coordinates their execution is imperative as is and strengthening the National Security Advisor’s (NSA’s) support structure. In addition, such a revamp should also include reforms to the existing higher defence organisation and intelligence setup. This report will flag some of the important issues the incoming government needs to focus on in order to strengthen India’s national security architecture.
Need for a National Strategy
A national strategy is important for planning India’s economic trajectory, shaping the country’s foreign relations, planning its defence modernisation, improving its science and technology capabilities, resource planning, internal security and other such critical areas. Such a strategy would chalk out Indian priorities as a function of India’s aspirations, security challenges and available resources.
Strategic Think-Tank and Coordinating Mechanism
The National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) could be tasked with drawing up holistic medium to long-term strategies in various areas. The NSCS could also act as a coordinating mechanism which implements these strategies by bringing together various departments and ministries of the government.
Strengthen the NSA’s Support Structure
The National Security Advisor (NSA) is the fulcrum around which the NSC system operates. The NSA’s role has expanded over time. Thus it is important to expand the NSA’s core support structure. Also, for the NSA and the NSC system to be able to function effectively it must be able to draw upon and assimilate knowledge from multiple sources into a cogent national strategy.
Reforming the Higher Defence Organisation
A decision on the position of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) is long overdue. The Chief of Defence Staff – regardless of what we choose to call the office – will foster inter-Service coordination in planning, execution of operations and in the force planning process. The system will ensure faster decision making during crises and provide a platform for inter-Service dispute resolution. Implementation of the system must address the drawbacks of the current system and evolve a purely ‘Indian’ solution keeping in mind the Indian situation and requirements.
Where to Begin?
The 2001 GoM Report on “Reforming the National Security System in pursuance of Kargil Review Committee Report” had recommended a comprehensive review of India’s national security mechanisms every five years. The exercise of revamping the existing National Security structure could be initiated with such a review.
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Jun 6, 2014

Arihant propels India to elite club


I was quoted in Praveen Swami's article in The Hindu (June 4, 2014)
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/arihant-propels-india-to-elite-club-but-with-a-headache/article6079477.ece

The HinduI was quoted in Praveen Swami’s article (June 4, 2014) in The Hindu titled “Arihant propels India to elite club.” Prime Minister Modi was briefed last week on the nuclear command structure. As India is set to join a select group of nations with the capability to launch nuclear missiles from submarines, the article focuses on the issues of command and control such a development would pose. 

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Jun 4, 2014

India Pakistan Relations: Two Questions on the Way Forward – Part II

Second of my two-part article in the  Stimson Center's website, South Asian Voices, June 2, 2014
http://southasianvoices.org/india-pakistan-relations-two-questions-on-the-way-forward-part-ii/

Despite the agreement on the need for the two countries to engage with each other, there is a difficult question that remains unanswered. The more important and possibly more difficult question is “Who does India speak to within Pakistan?” Does it seek to engage the civilian leadership in Islamabad or should it accept the ground reality and engage with the real center of power in Rawalpindi?

The choice is not a simple one. Engaging with the generals would mean reinforcing the commonly held perception and result in the weakening of the elected civilian leadership. In the longer run, the move could prove counterproductive given the impact that it will have on the democratic forces which are consolidating their base following the recent elections.
For the complete article click here
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