The Week's Nuclear Round-Up: 3-9 December '07

Published in the IDSA's Strategic Digest as part of The Week in Review Section

India

• Debate in Parliament continues; Burns: The 123 agreement is done and completed, Implementation remains; Second round of India-IAEA talks on India specific safeguards begin

Debate in the Parliament continued on the Indo-US nuclear agreement. EAM Pranab Mukherjee speaking in the Rajya Sabha reiterated that the agreement did not prevent India from conducting a nuclear test if it was necessary. Sitaram Yechury of the CPI(M) opined that the deal was not in India’s interests as it would bestow ‘sub-ordinate ally status’ on India as it will bring India “closer to the US positions on global issues as well as on regional strategic concerns.”[1] Nicholas Burns, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs on his part noted that the 123 Agreement was “finished … done … completed” and that it just needed to be approved by both governments.[2] The statement gained significance in light of calls for the renegotiation of the agreement during the debate in Parliament.

In other developments, India initiated second round of discussions with the IAEA on the India-specific safeguards agreement.[3] The draft of the text on the safeguards, which would address issues such as assured fuel supply, strategic fuel reserves and recognition of the separation plan, would be ready within December with one more round of talks by the end of the week.[4]

 NORTH KOREA

• Yongbyong disablement to take till February 2008; Christopher Hill visits Yongbyon; Six party talks postponed; Bush writes personal letter to Kim

Progress on the North Korean disablement programme has been quite encouraging even though it was reported that the disabling of the reactor complex at Yongbyon would be completed only by late Feburary 2008, instead of the earlier deadline of 31 December 2007.[5] Christopher Hill, the top US nuclear envoy on the North Korean disarmament process visited Yongbyon during the week, making him the highest US official to visit the nuclear complex.[6]

Meanwhile, the next round of the Six-Party talks, which were scheduled to have been held from 6-8 December 2007 were postponed. US President George Bush wrote a personal letter to his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong Il, reminding him that the North Korean declaration of its nuclear assets must be “complete and accurate” for further progress.[7]

IRAN

• Latest US NIE says Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons programme in fall 2003; Varied reactions to the NIE emerge; IAEA-Iran talks continue

The latest US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) titled “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities,” released on 3 December 2007 has stated that Iran halted work on development of a nuclear weapon in the fall of 2003. However, it noted that Iran would be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon by 2015.[8] The latest NIE is much less severe compared to the previous NIE released in 2005, which had stated that the Iranian leadership was “determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure.”[9] It was reported that the shift in the view of the US intelligence agencies occurred after they obtained notes last summer from the deliberations of Iranian military officials involved in the weapons development program.[10]

The reactions to the NIE have been varied. Iran has welcomed the report, saying that it vindicated its position. Israel on the other hand was quite critical, with Defence Minister, Ehud Barak rejecting the NIE’s conclusions.[11] The IAEA has however said that the US NIE matches the position that the Agency has taken on the Iran issue for the past several months. Director General ElBaradei noted that the agency had “no concrete evidence of an ongoing nuclear weapons program or undeclared nuclear facilities in Iran.”[12] President Bush on the other hand, asserted that the latest Iran report reiterated the need to keep up the pressure on Iran.[13]

In other developments, the ongoing talks between Iran and the IAEA continued with an IAEA technical delegation arriving in Tehran on 9 December. The talks are expected to discuss the issue of uranium particle contamination at a technical university in Tehran.[14]

PAKISTAN

• Increased scrutiny on safety of Pakistani nukes; Reports of war game on securing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal emerge

International scrutiny of Pakistani nukes increased with reports noting that Frederick Kagan, a former West Point military historian has drawn up series of scenarios for the consideration of the White House to tackle an unstable Pakistan. One of them included sending British or US troops to secure nuclear weapons and transporting them out of the country to a secret storage depot in New Mexico or a “remote redoubt” inside Pakistan.[15]

Another report noted that a small group of US military experts and intelligence officials had met last year in Washington for a classified war game, exploring strategies for securing Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if the country's political institutions and military safeguards began to fall apart. The scenario exercise was one of several such games the US government had conducted in recent years examining various options and scenarios. Analysts noted that American efforts relating to securing Pakistan's nuclear arsenal involved ‘really, really, black SAPs’, or special access programs, which were among the most highly guarded plans.[16]

(The above review is written by the author for the "IDSA Week in Review". It also appears in the IDSA Strategic Digest).

 

Endnotes

---

[1] Bibhudatta Pradhan, “India not barred from atomic tests under accord, Mukherjee says,” Bloomberg, 5 December 2007, at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=at6.cVAhpW34&refer=india

[2] P.S. Suryanarayana, “123 Agreement won’t be reopened: Burns,” The Hindu, 4 December 2007, at
http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/thscrip/print.pl?file=2007120469511200.htm&date=2007/12/04

/&prd=th&

[3] “Govt. opens another round of talks with IAEA,” The Hindu, 11 December 2007, at

http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/000200712110301.htm

[4] Arati R. Jerath, “Success of N-deal hinges on the IAEA’s language,” Daily News and Analysis, 5 December 2007, at http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1137293

[5] “Report: Disabling North Korean reactor delayed until February over technical issues,” International Herald Tribune, 2 December 2007, at http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/02/asia/AS-GEN-Koreas-Nuclear.php

[6] Jae-Soon Chang, “US Envoy Visits North Korean Reactor,” Washington Post, 4 December 2007, at

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120400088_pf.html

[7] “Bush Seeks Nuclear Disclosure From Kim,” New York Times, 7 December 2007, at

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-US-North-Korea.html

[8] “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities,” US National Intelligence Estimate, 3 December 2007, at

http://dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf

[9] “US report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003,” CNN, 3 December 2007, at

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/03/iran.nuclear/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

[10] David E. Sanger and Steven Lee Myers, “Details in Military Notes Led to Shift on Iran, US Says,” New York Times, 6 December 2007, at http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/06/world/middleeast/06intel.html?pagewanted=print

[11] “Israel's defense minister disputes US assessment on Iran,” International Herald Tribune, 4 December 2007, at http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8578898

[12] William J. Kole, “IAEA: US Iran Report Matches UN Agency,” Washington Post, 4 December 2007, at

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120400579_pf.html

[13] Roger Runningen and Edwin Chen, “Bush Says Iran Report Shows Need to Keep Up Pressure,” Bloomberg, 4 December 2007, at

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acX.b8N9Bj00&refer=home

[14] “UN nuclear team in Iran for new talks: State media,” AFP, 9 December 2007, at

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5icreZEKfoq_HQjqXS6vwjZor2dYA

[15] Adrian Levy and Cathy Scott-Clark “Bush handed blueprint to seize Pakistan's nuclear arsenal,” The Guardian, 1 December 2007, at http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2220044,00.html

[16] Thomas E. Ricks, “Calculating the Risks in Pakistan,” Washington Post, 2 December 2007, at
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/01/AR2007120101618_pf.html

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