Is there a debate about Nasr/Hatf-IX within Pakistan?

Published in Generation Why: South Asian Voices, Stimson Center, February 27, 2014

On November 5, 2013 Pakistan flight tested its short range battlefield missile Nasr/Hatf-IX. The test involved successive firing of four missiles (Salvo) from a multi-tube launcher. As compared to the first (April 19, 2011) flight test which was carried out from a two-tube launcher, the remaining flight tests (May 29, 2012, February 11, 2013 and November 5, 2013) were carried from a four tube launcher.

However, this was not the only – or even the most significant – difference between the four flight tests. The most significant departure was the language used in the Inter Services Press Release (ISPR) press release following the fourth Nasr flight test. The ISPR press releases following the earlier tests here, here and here had unambiguously claimed that the Nasr “carried nuclear warheads (sic) of appropriate yield.” Though the remaining text of the statement is largely similar to the earlier press releases, the statement following the fourth flight-test is different in one aspect. The statement claims that the missile, “contributes to the full spectrum deterrence against threats in view of the evolving scenarios.” 

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India-US row: Voices from the streets

A Short comment on the Indo-US row over the arrest of the Indian consular officer Ms Khobragade

Al Jazeera English, December 20, 2013

The recent arrest and subsequent treatment meted out to Khobragade has thrown another challenge at the India-US bilateral relationship which has been going through a trough.

Given the meek nature of Indian responses to earlier such incidents involving former officials and diplomats including former President Abdul Kalam and Indian Ambassador to the US Meera Shankar, not many in the US would have anticipated the nature and extent of Indian response.

Clearly, India seems to be pursuing a ‘tit for tat’ strategy by withdrawing privileges extended to the US consular staff and other officials bringing them at par with the courtesies extended to Indian officials in the US. Especially given the fact that India is one of US’s closest strategic allies, such responses are useful in conveying India’s displeasure to the US administration. However, it is important that such responses do not result in any unintended lasting damage to the bilateral relationship.

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India's Missile Modernisation and Credible Minimum Deterrence

Published in Generation Why: South Asian Voices, Stimson Center, December 5, 2013

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India has been modernising its missile capabilities. It has successfully flight-tested its longer range missiles like Agni-IV and Agni-V. It has also made efforts at canisterising its missiles with statements from senior DRDO officials pointing to the development of missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads. These developments have resulted in analyses (here and here, among others) which argue that India is “moving away from its stated doctrine of minimum deterrence towards one with more war-fighting like capabilities.” Such arguments are a simplified understanding of a complex dynamic that underpins the relationship between China-Pakistan alliance and India. Also, such an understanding fails to take into account India’s unique geo-political situation where it shares borders and a troubled history with two nuclear armed neighbours in China and Pakistan. Given the dynamic nature of nuclear doctrine and postures, countries are likely to respond to changing security dynamics. Therefore, the ongoing modernisation of India’s missile programare in essence attempts by India to preserve such technological options for the future rather than for immediate deployment. As such, these efforts are nothing but natural responses from New Delhi to the changes in its security environment rather than any move away from its stated nuclear doctrine.

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IAEA Safeguards: Evolution and Current Status

My article published in the International Journal of South Asian Studies, Vol. 6(1), Jan-June 2013, pp. 129-146.

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This essay seeks to trace the evolution and current status of the safeguards system implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It highlights the changes safeguards have undergone since the Agency’s inception in 1957. Safeguards have historically struck a balance between the twin objectives – of facilitating the spread of nuclear technology for peaceful uses and verification of non-proliferation commitments of NPT state parties – that the IAEA was supposed to fulfil. While some changes in the safeguards took place as a response to the spread of civil nuclear technology, other changes have been a reaction to the challenges posed to the non-proliferation regime from the Iraqi and North Korean disclosures. The essay concludes with an assessment of the changes which took place with the coming of Additional Protocol and provides an assessment of the current status of the safeguards across the globe.

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Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence

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Agni-V Launch (Source:Wiki)

In an article in the FAS Strategic Security Blog, Dr. Hans M. Kristensen has quoted various statements by scientists of the Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) related to modernisation of India’s missile program to arrive at the conclusion that the development and deployment of longer range missiles with multiple warheads and quick-launch capability would “indicate that India is gradually designing its way out of its so-called minimum deterrence doctrine towards a more capable nuclear posture.”

Though the arguments advanced in the paper appear logical and persuasive, they remain anchored in the Cold War logic. The two-party logic cannot be applied to understand the complex dynamic that underpins the relationship between the Sino-Pak alliance and India. Such a caricature of the more complex dynamic tends to misrepresent the realities of the relationship between these countries. 

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Indo-Pak Relations: Moving Beyond Binaries

My tuppence on Indo-Pak relations published as ISSSP Reflections

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Writing in the website of the IDSA, Sushant Sareen describes India’s Pakistan policy as having been reduced to single binary. The main point of debate in New Delhi about its policy towards Islamabad boils down to whether we should diplomatically engage with Pakistan; whether or not our cricket teams should compete with each other; and whether or not our Prime Ministers should meet. On one hand, many like Rahul Roy-Choudhury of IISS, London call for continued engagement as they believe that talking to each other is the only way forward. There are varied views and voices on how to deal with Pakistan. This article looks at the current Indo-Pakistan relations and deliberates upon the importance of establishing levels in Pakistan to compel its leadership into changing its existing policies.

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