Iran and P5+1 Geneva Agreement: A Game Changer?

My article on the Iran P5+1 Joint plan of action and its wider ramifications in The Diplomatist, Vol. 3, Issue 3, March 2014.

The interim agreement signed on November 24, 2013 at Geneva by Iran and the P5+1 and its subsequent operationalisation (January 20, 2014) highlights a remarkable shift the situation surrounding Iran has undergone over the past few months. The agreement is being perceived as a major departure in American policy towards Iran and the region in general. However, close observers would be quick in pointing out that such a shift has been some time in the making. The US move to enter into a dialogue with Tehran has largely been the result of a desire to buy more time to address the concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear programme through verification and roll back any probable progress Iran has made in building a nuclear weapon.

The deal also underscores the US’s endeavour to balance its efforts to push back Tehran’s regional rise on one hand,and build bridges of some kind after a hiatus of over three decades on the other. Taking a bird’s eye-view of the overall geo-political scenario, the move stems from the growing dissonance between US and its allies (Saudi Arabia and Israel) on major issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict, Syrian civil war and chemical weapons issue, as well as the handling of the Arab Spring aftermath.

For the complete article (in PDF) click here

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Verification and Nuclear Weapons Free World

Spoke at the IDSA, New Delhi on April 2, 2014 on "Verifying a Nuclear Weapons Free World"

I spoke at the conference on the topic “Verifying a Nuclear Weapons Free World: Political and Technical Components.” 
 
About the Conference

The conference was organised by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) and the Indian Pugwash Society, on April 2-3, 2014.

For the agenda of the conference click here

Abstract of the Talk

A world free of nuclear weapons would be a desirable end-objective. However, there are apprehensions that even if all nuclear weapons are eliminated, such an achievement would be short lived. This presentation seeks to outline the components (political and technical) of such a verification regime which could possibly help in preventing (re)acquisition of nuclear weapons capability. By increasing confidence levels among state parties about compliance by all, verification would in essence sustain a nuclear weapons free world once such a situation is realised.

Video of my talk at the Conference

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Nuclear Security Summit 2014: The Way Forward

Published in the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, March 21, 2014
http://www.ipcs.org/article/india/nuclear-security-summit-2014-the-way-forward-4351.html

The third edition of the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) is being held at The Hague on 24-25 March 2014. Leaders and officials from fifty-four countries and three international organisations (IAEA, INTERPOL and the UN) are expected to assemble for the international nuclear gala. As in the 2010 (Washington DC) and the 2012 (Seoul) avatars of the NSS, the main issues which are likely to be discussed at the Hague 2014 NSS are inter alia nuclear materials security and preventing nuclear terrorism. 

Perusing the commentaries and op-eds leading up to the 2014 edition of the NSS and the communiqués put out after by the earlier editions of the NSS, one gets a sense that mindsets needs to change if the objective of a making the world a safer place is to be realised.

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Is there a debate about Nasr/Hatf-IX within Pakistan?

Published in Generation Why: South Asian Voices, Stimson Center, February 27, 2014

On November 5, 2013 Pakistan flight tested its short range battlefield missile Nasr/Hatf-IX. The test involved successive firing of four missiles (Salvo) from a multi-tube launcher. As compared to the first (April 19, 2011) flight test which was carried out from a two-tube launcher, the remaining flight tests (May 29, 2012, February 11, 2013 and November 5, 2013) were carried from a four tube launcher.

However, this was not the only – or even the most significant – difference between the four flight tests. The most significant departure was the language used in the Inter Services Press Release (ISPR) press release following the fourth Nasr flight test. The ISPR press releases following the earlier tests here, here and here had unambiguously claimed that the Nasr “carried nuclear warheads (sic) of appropriate yield.” Though the remaining text of the statement is largely similar to the earlier press releases, the statement following the fourth flight-test is different in one aspect. The statement claims that the missile, “contributes to the full spectrum deterrence against threats in view of the evolving scenarios.” 

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India-US row: Voices from the streets

A Short comment on the Indo-US row over the arrest of the Indian consular officer Ms Khobragade

Al Jazeera English, December 20, 2013

The recent arrest and subsequent treatment meted out to Khobragade has thrown another challenge at the India-US bilateral relationship which has been going through a trough.

Given the meek nature of Indian responses to earlier such incidents involving former officials and diplomats including former President Abdul Kalam and Indian Ambassador to the US Meera Shankar, not many in the US would have anticipated the nature and extent of Indian response.

Clearly, India seems to be pursuing a ‘tit for tat’ strategy by withdrawing privileges extended to the US consular staff and other officials bringing them at par with the courtesies extended to Indian officials in the US. Especially given the fact that India is one of US’s closest strategic allies, such responses are useful in conveying India’s displeasure to the US administration. However, it is important that such responses do not result in any unintended lasting damage to the bilateral relationship.

For the complete article click here

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India's Missile Modernisation and Credible Minimum Deterrence

Published in Generation Why: South Asian Voices, Stimson Center, December 5, 2013

For the complete article click here

India has been modernising its missile capabilities. It has successfully flight-tested its longer range missiles like Agni-IV and Agni-V. It has also made efforts at canisterising its missiles with statements from senior DRDO officials pointing to the development of missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads. These developments have resulted in analyses (here and here, among others) which argue that India is “moving away from its stated doctrine of minimum deterrence towards one with more war-fighting like capabilities.” Such arguments are a simplified understanding of a complex dynamic that underpins the relationship between China-Pakistan alliance and India. Also, such an understanding fails to take into account India’s unique geo-political situation where it shares borders and a troubled history with two nuclear armed neighbours in China and Pakistan. Given the dynamic nature of nuclear doctrine and postures, countries are likely to respond to changing security dynamics. Therefore, the ongoing modernisation of India’s missile programare in essence attempts by India to preserve such technological options for the future rather than for immediate deployment. As such, these efforts are nothing but natural responses from New Delhi to the changes in its security environment rather than any move away from its stated nuclear doctrine.

For the complete article click here

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